Today's Mortgage Rates
Current mortgage rates in the United States
National rate averages refreshed weekly from public reporting. These are illustrative averages, not a quote. Your personal rate depends on credit, loan size, occupancy, and program. We do not lend.
National average rates this week
Rates pulled: Sep. 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Illustrative national averages for education and offer comparison. Not a quote, not a Loan Estimate, not a rate lock, and not a guarantee. HomeMortgageOnline does not lend and does not recommend lenders.
| Loan type | Rate | APR | Next-week outlook | Next-month outlook | Source | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed conventional | 6.95% | 7.02% | Higher bias0.00-0.05 pts higherHigher bias. Expected move: 0.00-0.05 pts higher. | Higher bias0.05-0.20 pts higherHigher bias. Expected move: 0.05-0.20 pts higher. | Freddie Mac PMMS | Sep. 17, 2026 |
| 20-year fixed conventional | 6.46% | 6.55% | Higher bias0.00-0.05 pts higherHigher bias. Expected move: 0.00-0.05 pts higher. | Higher bias0.05-0.20 pts higherHigher bias. Expected move: 0.05-0.20 pts higher. | Prior snapshot, unchanged | Jul. 31, 2026 |
| 15-year fixed conventional | 6.26% | 6.36% | Higher bias0.00-0.05 pts higherHigher bias. Expected move: 0.00-0.05 pts higher. | Higher bias0.05-0.15 pts higherHigher bias. Expected move: 0.05-0.15 pts higher. | Freddie Mac PMMS | Sep. 17, 2026 |
| 30-year FHA | 6.69% | 6.75% | FlatFlat to 0.05 higherFlat. Expected move: Flat to 0.05 higher. | MixedMixed, 0.00-0.15 higherMixed. Expected move: Mixed, 0.00-0.15 higher. | Bankrate national avg. | Sep. 17, 2026 |
| 30-year VA | 6.71% | 6.78% | FlatFlat to 0.05 higherFlat. Expected move: Flat to 0.05 higher. | MixedMixed, 0.00-0.15 higherMixed. Expected move: Mixed, 0.00-0.15 higher. | Bankrate national avg. | Sep. 17, 2026 |
| 30-year jumbo | 7.13% | 7.17% | FlatFlat, choppyFlat. Expected move: Flat, choppy. | Mixed-0.10 to +0.10 ptsMixed. Expected move: -0.10 to +0.10 pts. | Bankrate national avg. | Sep. 17, 2026 |
| Daily top-tier 30-year fixed | 7.19% | Varies | FlatFlat to 0.05 higherFlat. Expected move: Flat to 0.05 higher. | Higher bias0.05-0.20 pts higherHigher bias. Expected move: 0.05-0.20 pts higher. | Mortgage News Daily index | Sep. 17, 2026 |
Source and methodology
This week's 30-year and 15-year conventional prints come from Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) as of Sep. 17, 2026: 6.95% and 6.26%. The prior-week PMMS prints were 6.76% and 6.09%. A year earlier those weekly averages were 6.26% and 5.41%. FHA, VA, and jumbo national averages come from Bankrate. Daily direction uses Mortgage News Daily's top-tier index. APR figures on this site are illustrative spreads because PMMS does not publish APR. Week-change is versus the prior snapshot we published. Next-week and next-month columns are educational ranges from the 30-day model described below. Not a quote, lock, or prediction.
Historical context uses Freddie Mac's weekly 30-year series published through FRED (MORTGAGE30US). See our disclaimer.
Mortgage rate outlook
Historical trend + forward view
30-year fixed rates: history, now, and scenario range
The latest weekly benchmark is 6.95% for the 30-year fixed and 6.26% for the 15-year fixed (Freddie Mac PMMS, Sep. 17, 2026), up from 6.76% and 6.09% the prior week. A year earlier those weekly averages were 6.26% and 5.41%. Daily prints sit higher: Mortgage News Daily's top-tier 30-year index was 7.19% on Sep. 17, and Bankrate's national 30-year average was 7.06% the same morning. The monthly outlook model has not been rescored this week. The 30-day scenario range and baseline below remain an editorial scenario, not a guarantee, quote, or rate-lock promise.
30 days: 6.60% - 7.05%
Most likely range if the 10-year Treasury holds near current levels and the next inflation or jobs data does not surprise sharply in either direction.
6 months: 6.40% - 7.10%
Upside risk dominates if the Iran war keeps oil elevated or the Fed hikes in September; downside case improves only if inflation cools further, the labor market keeps softening, and cut expectations return.
Baseline: near 6.70%
Our midpoint view expects rates to stay higher for longer, in line with Fannie Mae's and MBA's August upward revisions. Buyers should still compare APR and fees now.
How the rate outlook is refined each month
This site uses a Karpathy-inspired research loop: collect public data, score each signal, compare last month's forecast with what actually happened, then update the visible range and newsletter commentary. The model does not promise accuracy. It creates a disciplined, transparent way to explain why rates may move.
| Signal | Why it matters | Monthly action |
|---|---|---|
| Freddie Mac / FRED 30-year benchmark | Anchors the historical trend line used in the chart. | Refresh latest weekly value and prior-month change. |
| Mortgage News Daily direction | Captures faster daily market movement before weekly averages update. | Compare daily top-tier movement with FRED lag. |
| 10-year Treasury and MBS spread | Explains whether mortgage rates are moving with bonds or widening independently. | Score pressure as lower, neutral, or higher. |
| CPI, jobs, and Fed guidance | Major surprises can change lender pricing and rate-cut expectations quickly. | Summarize the driver in plain English. |
| Fannie Mae and MBA forecasts | Adds an institutional consensus check against the site's editorial scenario. | Compare consensus with our 30-day and 6-month ranges. |
Decision lens
Use the outlook to plan, not to gamble
People searching rate forecasts usually want one practical answer: whether to act now or wait. The right answer depends on timing, not just the headline rate.
Buying soon: compare now, then manage lock risk
If you need a loan in the next 30 to 60 days, compare lenders now and ask each one about lock periods, relock fees, and float-down rules. A better APR or lender credit can matter more than waiting for a perfect rate.
Watch next
CPI releases, payroll reports, Fed meeting language, and 10-year Treasury direction.
Do next
Model payments at today's rate, plus 0.25 points higher and lower, before requesting quotes.
How to compare lenders without getting misled
Sort by APR, not brand name
APR includes interest plus required lender fees, so it is the cleanest first-pass comparison. A low rate with high fees can lose to a slightly higher rate with lower costs.
Compare the same scenario everywhere
Use identical inputs - loan amount, down payment, and lock period - so quotes are truly comparable. A rate only means something next to its fees.
Compare loan estimates line by line
Ask each lender for the same loan amount, property value, down payment, and lock period. Then compare rate, APR, Section A fees, and lender credits.
How mortgage rates are set
Mortgage rates feel like a single number, but they are really the visible end of a long chain. The base layer is the broader bond market - especially the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. When investors expect inflation to stay elevated or the economy to keep growing, they demand higher yields on long-dated bonds, and mortgage rates drift up in sympathy. When growth slows or recession risk rises, money rotates into safe assets, the 10-year falls, and mortgage rates usually follow.
Layered on top of Treasuries is the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market. Most U.S. home loans are pooled into MBS and sold to investors through Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae. The spread between MBS yields and the 10-year Treasury determines how much higher mortgage rates run versus the safest government debt. That spread widens during periods of stress, like 2008 or early 2020, which is why mortgage rates do not always move perfectly in lockstep with Treasuries.
The Federal Reserve does not directly set mortgage rates, but it shapes them. When the Fed raises the federal funds rate, short-term rates climb first, and longer-term yields - including the 10-year - usually adjust in response. The Fed's balance sheet decisions matter too. From 2020 to 2022, large-scale MBS purchases pulled mortgage rates lower than they otherwise would have been. When the Fed shifted to balance sheet runoff, spreads widened and mortgage rates rose faster than Treasuries.
Inflation expectations are the dominant day-to-day driver. Strong jobs reports, hot CPI prints, and rising wage growth all push rates higher because investors fear inflation will erode the value of fixed-rate bond payments. Cooler inflation data tends to bring rates down within hours.
Your personal rate adds another set of layers on top of the national average. Credit score, loan-to-value (LTV), debt-to-income (DTI), occupancy (primary, second home, investment), property type, and loan program all shift the rate a lender will offer. Two borrowers buying the same house can be quoted rates 0.5 percentage points apart based solely on credit and down payment. Loan size also matters: conforming, high-balance conforming, and jumbo loans price differently. Finally, discount points let you buy down the rate by paying more upfront, while lender credits reduce closing costs in exchange for a slightly higher rate.
Because so many factors move at once, even a great national average can be a poor predictor of what you will actually be offered. The only way to find out is to gather two or three actual quotes within a short window so credit pulls bundle together as a single inquiry and you can compare rate, APR, and total closing costs side by side.
Frequently asked questions
Are these mortgage rates a quote or a Loan Estimate?
No. The figures on this page are illustrative national averages from public surveys such as Freddie Mac PMMS. They are not a lender quote, not a rate lock, and not a Loan Estimate. A Loan Estimate is a lender-specific disclosure for your credit, property, and loan terms.
Should I compare offers from more than one lender?
Yes. A national average is a benchmark, not the rate you will be offered. Compare written Loan Estimates from more than one lender using the same loan amount, down payment, and lock period. We do not recommend any lender.
Does HomeMortgageOnline lend or recommend lenders?
No. HomeMortgageOnline is an independent educational resource. We do not lend, take applications, lock rates, or recommend lenders.
Shared as-of: 30-year fixed 6.95% (Freddie Mac PMMS, Sep. 17, 2026). Use that illustrative average in the mortgage calculator. Not a quote.
HomeMortgageOnline.com is not a lender and does not approve loans. Rates shown are illustrative national averages, not quotes, Loan Estimates, or rate locks. We do not recommend lenders.